Africa's Lake Victoria:Tragedy of the Commons Multiplied byGlobal Warming

Lake Victoria is one of the largest fresh water bodies on the Planet, and it is in trouble. The level of the lake is receding at an unprecedented rate. [Wikipedia:Lake Victoria] Excessive draw-down of lake water to produce hydroelectric power is amplifying the negative effects of deforestation and producing massive economic problems for the 30 million people who live around the lake.

Using franchises granted by corrupt politicians, private agribusiness is cutting down old growth forest and converting the forest lands to palm plantations. Forest cover reduction further reduces the lake level. Global warming is increasing evaporation, reducing rainfall, and drying out the surrounding watershed. All of this compounds and leads to a further taking of the commons by the few with government protection. Most of the population is either subjugated or being fooled into passivity.

As this process continues, salinity increases and the shoreline retreats to expose the lake bed, producing dust storms that further increase the degradation of the surrounding ecosystem.

This is a classic example of the tragedy of the commons [Wikipedia :Tragedy of the commons], where the few ruin it for the rest. This time, the few ruin it forever for the many life forms who will go extinct, and, if this predation on the commons isn't reversed, there will be tens of millions of humans and thousands of species who pay the price for the riches of a few thousand greedy people.

Uganda experienced a genocide that is well-known, but what is not well-known is that the predation continues to this day. It may be less obvious, but it is just as real. An example of the corruption in Uganda that is devastating old growth forests can be found online: [Uganda Forestry Boss Forced Out]. The story also recounts how some in the Ugandan government are not going along with the rape of their forests, and how they are being excluded from the government over time.

The predatory exploitation of Lake Victoria for energy production is detailed on this site: [Falling water level in Lake Victoria]. While this AP story follows the usual superficial “journalistic/non judgmental” reporting style, a more disturbing message can be drawn from the data presented .

The Antidote: Saving the Commons

Unless current practices are changed, Africa’s Lake Victoria will go the way of Asia’s Aral Sea [Kazakhstan/ Uzbekistan border], diminishing in size and affecting the land in ways not previously imaginable by those in the region. Desertification will irreversibly destroy the precious habitat that has nurtured many unique beings since the dawn of life on Earth, bringing extinction to the hominids, primates, and other wildlife there and devastating the civilization that has evolved alongside the lake.

In principle the correction is simple. Present corruption must be countered by a transparent and accountable government that protects the commons and restores the environment. Exploitation of the area’s natural resources must be reduced to a sustainable level, and the few who use the government for their own greed will have to go.

If the draw-down of Lake Victoria by private companies for hydroelectric production is reduced to a sustainable level, the loss of lake area will diminish. Although global warming will continue to pose a challenge, at least it will not compound the ecological damage. In the near term, a huge shortfall in electricity would impact area economy. The loss of fish populations must be mitigated by a reduction in pollution and by less fishing.

If the riches stolen from the area’s people were repatriated, some of that revenue and energy could be utilized to build solar cell plants, facilitate biomass generation, construct wind farms, and create other sustainable energy production systems. Ecosystem damage could be reduced, the ecosystem stabilized.

In the short term, painful shifts, but in the long term, an economy where the population would enjoy a healthier and more sustainable lifestyle.

Unfortunately, the carrying capacity of the region may already be reduced below the current population level, and unless the commons is restored, it will be further degraded. The urgency of this shift cannot be underestimated.

It is inevitable that a balance will be restored. The only question is just how low the human and non-human populations have to drop before a balance is reached. Action now can make the adjustment less painful and will leave our descendents a world that still has the tens of thousands of species that must surely die out if we continue our present course.

The reality is that a modest correction now could avoid a pandemic of horror in the near future. But the likelihood of such a correction is not great, since the bureaucrats and corporations in power have so much to loose and just kill off those who challenge their attacks on the ecological commons.

One note of optimism: The shift toward restoration of the north part of the Aral Sea lends hope that Lake Victoria can yet be saved if concerned organizations, governments, and individuals work collaboratively together [Wikipedia: Aral_Sea]. In the case of the Aral Sea, diversion of the rivers that started the destruction has not been reversed, but the steps that have been taken there to date are compelling evidence that giving up is wrong, that action can improve things, and that knowledge amplified by action can do much to make our global commons better.