Thursday, December 24, 2009

Climate warming drives sea level rise and that may trigger increased seismic and volcanic activity. As the weight on the continental margins shifts as sea level rises, we may begin to see responses from the earth that could include earthquakes.
A recent article in the San Francisco Chronicle explained how scientists have discovered that tides, and the gravitational tugs of the sun and moon can trigger small, long duration low magnitude seismic action deep in the earth along the San Andreas Fault in California.

San Andreas found extremely sensitive...by John Wildermuth


This activity is below the level that generates most of the earthquakes that we feel, but as it moves, it puts strain on the levels closer to the surface and may create the conditions for a larger quake. The research was reported here:

Tremor-tide correlations and near-lithostatic pore pressure on the deep San Andreas fault by Amanda M. Thomas, Robert M. Nadeau & Roland Bürgmann,Nature,Volume 462 Number 7276,page1048

I speculate that similar mechanisms may respond to the shift in the weight distribution as glaciers melt, ice sheets move, and sea level rises. Indeed the geological record has hints that this may have happened during earlier climate shifts. There is no way to predict the magnitude of the effects that will be experienced as a consequence of the redistribution of so much mass but the forces involved are huge and even slight shifts in the earth can have huge consequences for our society.

Increased volcanism could be beneficial as it can send clouds of gasses that provide short term cooling as happened when Mt. Pinatubo exploded a few decades ago. Of more concern is the increased seismic activity that may be triggered.

More research is needed, and funding for both deep earth science and modeling that would simulate the redistribution of mass as the climate warms could help us understand the changes in store as we experience the climate change already "in motion".

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