Wednesday, December 29, 2004

Creating a Tsunami warning system today can leverage the networks ( and robust routing ) to combine networks of sensors with distributed recognition of the danger zones, use of computer models of the ocean basins, to get multicast warnings to folks, to radio stations, to alarms where exists, to use weather radios, text messages, email, and satellite broadcasting.

Seismic networks knew within minutes that a great quake occured, and the location was plotted so a source term was available. Within another minute if the Tsunami computer models were ready, a plot could have been generated that would indicate regions of concern, and approximate times. Certainly having data buoy reports from the area of the quake would improve accuracy, but that would be a refinement that may be unaffordable or unavailable until later.

This simple model, namely using existing seismic monitoring networks coupled to a server running a basin model would yield preditions that could be rapidly distributed to relevent authorities, news organizations, and the like. Model based predictions could also generate validation tests. The sort of events that cause a tsunami can also be heard through the networks of hydraphones that are listening all the time, tracking subs, etc.

Any tsunami wave that would be generated would also generate acoustic signatures as it interacts with the coastal areas as it sweeps away from the epicenter of the wave generating event. This signature would validate the predictions. Satellite data collection for the fixed bouy system is essential so that the tsunami generating event doesn't just wipe out the system. With a world wide distributed system, it is likely that the notice of an approaching wave would originate from outside the affected area, and could thus be more effective.

Clearly credibility requries that there be humans in the system to ensure the integrity of any warnings. We really should be doing this in California, and certainly in Florida. Here in California we have a Tsunami warning system, though the delivery of the messages would be unreliable at best. I remember the Cresent City Tsunami warnings, on KNX in L.A. although I don't remember the specifics. The Cresent City event caused folks to be wary in Long Beach, as there was no network at that time ( my recollection anyway).

The U.S. Navy has such models of the ocean basins, and the software to generate the maps predicting the path of a tsunami. Without giving away classified information, the U.S.Navy could provide the alarm information in a timely manner. The U.S. Navy is also the best qualified organization in the World to provide the validation as they operate the largest network of monitored hydraphones, have the most sophisticated signal processing software.

The U.S. Navy would probably need some time to write some computer code, and maybe more time to come to grips with giving out formerly secret information, but they could provide value to the people of the world in one authentic basin wide tsunami warning that would pay for the entire cost of the Navy over our history!

Internet based warning could take seconds to reach decision makers in various countries, and once the satellite broadcast media picked up the warning, large populations at risk could move to safer ground, mitigating the loss of life to a major degree.

Time to get this in place for the globe. We should have monitoring and warning protocols in place for every ocean basin. A meteor could also generate a tsunami, and would likewise be observed by the U.S. Space Command, though I doubt that the Navy and Space Command have working interconnected systems for this purpose at this time. Never the less, such a connection would be useful, and it should generate civilian warnings in the likely event that they are needed some time over the next 100 years. It would be very inexpensive to put such a system based on existing sensor networks on line compared with the much discussed special purpose systems using only governement assets.

Volcano's that generate Tsunami's are likewise detectable by seismic stations and could be confirmed by existing Naval surveillance systems, generating the same internet notifications, news bullatins, etc. The threshold for such notifacations should be set quite high, so that the confidence in the warning would justify the extreme measures necessary to cause a mass evacuation, justifying the inevitable casualties from the evacuation in the reduction of overall harm.

Now with some 100,000 prompt dead, perhaps many times that in disease to follow, and another challenge to our civilization. Civil disorder in Sumatra is reported, and economic chaos as the scale of the events overwhelms the poor local government authorities, wiping out thousands of small businesses, civil infrastructure. This huge event is nevertheless limited for the most part on the margins of the contenent, but is unbounded for some of the island nations.
Entire Island populations may be gone, there are thousands of islands to check, few to do the checking.


Saturday, December 04, 2004

The recent accecptance by a wide cross section of the thinking population that greenhouse warming is a real phenomenon isn't enough to shift government action in a useful direction. Indeed the present U.S. Government approach is to hide evidence or scientific studies that tend to support the idea that global warming is real. The EPA has been hijacked by some folks who don't value the environment, and the quality of their science has declined in direct porportion to the degree of politization of the budget allocation process. Science is subject to doctrinare censorship in a number of government sponsored arenas, since the Bush administration overcame the opposition. Even studies on things that might be beneficial to mankind are subject to the political litmus test by the NeoCons.

Sunday, October 03, 2004

Africa Now : The most important story for the 21st
Century ( before the war).This BBC Web article
Desperate measures in Zimbabwe by Michael Hartnack

appeared on the BBC website. It is part of the real story of the 21st century, the spread of devastation across Africa, a whole continent embroiled in a vortex spreading desert, decimating human population, rolling forward with crushing poverty, and two instances of genocide within a decade so far. The spread of AIDS is unchecked, many governments are organized around kleptomania, many with social policies that destroy the economy. Rogue governments are more common and unchallenged in the world community. Environmental policies are trumped by corruption, education is retreating up the class mountain, like the retreating snow lines on Mt. Kilimanjaro.

This trend will not be contained on the African continent. Distressing
indeed is that the deserts growing like a stain across the continent most likely couple with the evolution of Hurricanes that eventually cruise up the Florida peninsula, intensifying them and encouraging their spawn. Global warming is indeed melting huge amounts of ice in Antarctica, and in the Arctic.

Tropical diseases are now in Northern California, in New York, in places that
they hadn’t called home for around 2000 years or more, maybe 20,000 years.



Interesting to contemplate the fact that the California coastline used to be more than 6 miles further out around Moro Bay. That means that within the time that Indians have been living in California, most of the shift came from melting ice. There has been some geologic uplift, but
over only 10000-20000 years, that’s a HUGE change. Humans not only adapted, we flourished. That change was fairly slow, and the ecological reservoir was diverse and rich.

The pace of change threatens much of the genetic legacy, the diversity of species, the wonderful beings from bacteria to whales. We humans have not taken care of the rich web of life, and threaten to wipe out huge amounts of the remaining ecological wealth through the exercise of regular old greed. The change that was set in motion by the burst of greenhouse gasses, disastrous forestry and farming practices that spread desert , and is likely to be an organizing element in Human activity for a very long time!

Africa has large regions where the government provides little security, doesn’t feed their starving, destroys agriculture in the name of land reform, and is increasingly controlled by feudal warlords as failed corrupt democracies deteriorate into irrelevance. The world response to the Darfur genocide is discouraging.

Truth would go a long way toward shaping effective responses, and the Bush administration still doesn’t speak the obvious truth about Sudan. The UN and US have still not spoken out about how the Janjaweed and the government are working together to commit the genocide, Arab against tribal blacks. The government sponsored military operations driving out and killing one group of people from their homes to take their assets, meager as they may be. Whole regions will be ethnically cleansed if the Sudan government continues to implement their plans.

This is a stage, where a group that can’t make it on their own, and simply kills to keep going, that should be frightening to all who treasure their civilized lives, who live in our Disneyland. I’m not sure what comes next, but it doesn’t seem likely that this trend is near an end.

This essay was inspired by this BBC story :BBC World : Africa

Bruce Bagnoli

Sunday, September 12, 2004

The dance on the Korean peninsula between North Korea and South Korea exposes some new proliferation concerns. While North Korea persues obtaining special nuclear materials through "conventional means" the recent news item that South Korea has used laser enrichment to make a fraction of a gram of slightly enriched U238-235 shows that South Korea is capable of very sophisticated technical projects, a fact that should be sobering to the North Korean government leadership. The South Korean experiments show that SK could gain this capability should their government decide to persue such a course.

Back during the Korean war, declassified security documents show that the US moved to make the N-weapon threat from the US credible, moving assets closer to the conflict even while debating the utility of such weapons in the conflict. Some at the time thought that these weapons would have little tactical utility, partly due to the topography, partly due to the geopolitical consequences of such a move.

This was discussed in the journal International Security a number of years ago.

It is apparent to me that both Japan and South Korea as well as Taiwan could have such weapons at any point if given the go-ahead of the United States, or if their leadership initiated a clandestine program. In some way, it might be stabilizing if T,J,SK had such capability, as the North Korean's are more vulnearable to strategic bombing if they were to use such a doomsday weapon on South Korea than they were so many years ago.

Hopefully folks like me will never know if these states decide to persue such a course, as the evidence will remain hidden, and the weapons won't be used. It is facinating to see the public disclosures as part of the diplomatic dance, and to hope that the West will be able to bring a peaceful end to the "cold war" continuing on the Korean land.

It is my hope that North Korea will change it's approach to being in the world, but as long as China finds it useful to have a rogue state in it's corner, there isn't much that the West is willing to do that will truely shift the course of the North Korean persuit of power. The existance of slave labor camps in North Korea doesn't get much press these days, nor do we hear much about the economic geography of North Korea.

It might be useful for the nations around North Korea to begin to make public more about how the North Korean economy functions, which other nations have trade relations with the North, how the flow of money and goods ties them to the rest of the world. Such knowledge would be useful in dealing with this emerging threat, as world economic forces are at least as important in the long term as military power.

The stability of the government in the North is a concern, as it is certain from public disclosures that enough U and Pu exist in enriched form to be a proliferation concern. If the U-hexaflouride that was found in North Africa indeed came from NK, then it's not much of a stretch to think that a war on terror must put a priority on containing this regime. North Korea's involvement in the amphetamine trade shows that they have routes that could bypass most border controls, and the confluence of these two trade routes would be truely terrifying to the rest of us.

The roll-up of the Pakistani proliferation network has addressed a big threat to world stability, but without addressing this NK component, the threat is only mitigated and is likely to spead further. The NK threat to sell technology is mild compared with the threat to sell snm to rogue ngo and must be considered as a primary threat to world political stability.

Wednesday, August 25, 2004

Poetry in the name of Allen Cohen

Last night a group of 20 or so folks gathered at a coffee shop on College Avenue in Berkeley to read poetry, brought together around the idea of a memorial for Allen Cohen.

The gathering was brought together through email groups and word of mouth. It was recorded for streaming on the internet by a couple using a simple DV camera on a tripod.

The group of poets who gathered included people who had edited books of poetry with Allen ( such as Clive ) , people who had worked with Allen on documentaries, Berkeley poets who knew Allen, and some who were caregivers. Most were over 50, but there were a few young folks there. Aging hippies would be an apt description of many in the group.

Held in a back room of the Coffee shop, the lighting was harsh, the surface finishes hard, the room tone sharp, but a gentle air, mutual respect, and shared love for the words written and spoken lifted the ambiance, creating a protected zone for the memorial.

Each poet or writer had about 6 minutes, and Jessie moved it right along. Stories of Kerouac and Keasey, the Oracle paper, communes, poetry performed with Jazz, the trajectory of a life.

Nicole read an autobiographical piece that she found in Allen's papers after he died. It told the story of how the son of a garmet worker followed his passions, for better or worse, how he started a unique publication, how involved he was with children. His marriage to Ann, their years of seperation, and their sweet reunion.

Not discussed is how the scourge of Hepatitis "C" spread amongst some of the "in crowd", beat poets, and hippies spread through drug use, etc., much the same as HIV spreads today. Allen suffered from HepC, later from cancer. I don't know how he contracted the disease.

I passed through San Francisco and Berkeley back during the late 60's and 70's, and I remember the way that so many people wanted to explore the new realms, emboldened by the discovery that most of what we had been taught by authorities about drugs was bogus propaganda. So some ignored it all, to their peril. One of the things that our generation must do is tell the truth about drugs in the culture so that young people can be safe. So much harm comes from practices that are colloquial folk ways of using sacrament herbs and recreational drugs made necessary by the lack of sanitary and safe alternatives.

So much pressure to be "hip", and the rituals of acceptance to some cliques seemed to involve sharing something marking outlaw status, it's no wonder that many of our best and brightest get caught in the current. It's tragic to loose our friend, though thank goodness he was with us around 65 years. Being with him near the end, one has the sense that toward the latter part of his life he gave us something unavailable earlier, something valuable, something loving and perishable.

Collateral damage is how I view Allen's premature death, a side effect of a demented drug policy that has been a source of government power for 8 decades, so I don't expect it to change any time soon. If drugs weren't inherently criminal, the harm to society could be minimized in ways that aren't even discussed in national American political debate.

Recent epidemiological studies establish that the simple practice of needle exchange so that folks who insist on injecting drugs don't become vectors of disease would reduce the incidence of AIDS and Hepatitis "C". This is only one of many subtle side effects of our current policy that must change as we find a peace from the drug wars. I'm not advocating any encouragement of injection drug use, to the contrary I think that more education is needed and that a shift in policy can actually reduce the harm that drugs do to our society without seeing drug use become rampant.

Allen lived a life with a spiritual component, philosophical insight, and a quest for a new society where respect and love would create a richness sadly lacking today. His vision comes through in the poetry, consistently throughout his life.

I remember hearing him read a poem at a reunion gathering where we camped in the woods near Mendocino California back in 1985 about the nuclear survivors, the threat that still haunts us all these years later. Here is his poem,Hiroshima –40thAnniversary.

During that gathering on the land we heard both a domestic spat with the petty ego conflicts that later divided Ann and Allen's lives, and his passionate poetic response to the escalating cold war and the horror of a nuclear aftermath. How wonderful that Reagan and Gorbachov ( and so many others) brought that evil dance to a close.

Maybe 18 years later, at another reunion summer camp in the Redwoods, he read another poem "35th Reunion at Table Mountain , sitting in our circle, sitting out in the interior of the circle, as to absorb healing energy, to be a bit more prominent. His poetry both honors a special time with a special tribe of people, it evokes for me the poignant essence of our spiritual predicament.

It took me a long time to appreciate this being, I quarreled with him sometimes, and didn’t particularly cater to his ways, but I’m thankful that I’ve had the chance to make the acquaintance of so many dear people, people who cared for this person or were touched by his art.

His last few months we learn were a time when he touched many lives, as I hear testimony at these memorials. While I think that memorials for Allen Cohen have become a bit of a cottage industry, I think he would have loved to see it, so much of his work being read, discussed and even published.

Just a short time before he died, Anne remarried him. The wedding was a living memorial where he received the love and lifted us all higher. I was privileged to make a video of the ceremony and reception so I saw closely during the editing this loose community came together, shared and loved.

Added in post:  A memorial was held at Golden Gate Park, on "hippy hill" to clelebrate his life and his work.  A video from that gathering is on You Tube Allan Cohen: A celebration".



Wednesday, August 04, 2004

notes : Learning Videography

Video editing software provides the ability to warp time, allowing the videographer to review and examine the work just done, providing feedback on technique.

Shooting live TV is a sport that I enjoy. I operate a camera at events as part of a crew consisting of several cameras, sound people, director, producer, TD, CharGen, floor director, etc.

During the event I'm so busy responding to the director's instructions, I am not able to critically study the results that I'm producing, so it's hard to pick up the subtle things that could be improved.

Recently, I did an event where I recorded my camera's signal in camera, and sent the signal to the PixBox switcher at the control room. After the event, I logged the tape to computer using the capture function in PremierPro, then used the edit function to review my work.

It's easy to just watch the video this way, and it allows you to zoom in so that a particular few seconds loop. This time warping zoom using the "jog-shuttle" controls on the edit window reveals shakes, auto_exposure glitches, tracking errors, framing errors, pans that were smooth and those that were not.

Examining the work using the editor would be vastly more valuable if the crew chatter over the intercom was also recorded on the tape. I'm going to figure how to do this, and jump to the next level in learning. Without the directors instructions to me, it's hard to know when I was live, when I was hunting for the shot, etc. It would also be good to have the talley light signal on tape somehow.

I would urge folks who want to learn good camera technique to sit down with a non-linear computer editing setup and take a close look at your work. Take notes on what works, what doesn't work. Look at critical focus, exposure, stability, composition. Looking for the sequence of shots ( establishing, mcu, cutaway, head shots, reaction shots, etc. ), looking at the recording of metadata, ease of logging, etc.

This is simply the fastest way to reach journeyman performance with your camera.

Bruce Bagnoli

Sunday, April 18, 2004

Some things that come to mind when I think of what has been through my journals so far:

Hand written journal with selected pages posted from time to time. Comments on events, life cycles, ideas. Bamboo, physics, current events and speculation on future trends and opportunities. Community development, video, photojournalism, collaborative technology, technial safety, management and leadership, characters, photos, public access tv, web engineering, environmental conservation, art, crafts, crafts people, gardening, family, optical computing, network engineering, information systems programming, systems architecture, information systems security, kayaking, camping, hiking, bicycling, sailing, wilderness, tree farming, plant tissue culture, astrophysics, sonoluminesence, muon catylized fusion, relitivistic plasma engineering, software agents, knowledge engineering, knowledge management and acquisition, neural nets, fuzzy logic, solitons, wavelets, simulation, mathematical modeling, stochastic resonance, i ching, thich nhat hanh's teachings, story telling, video editing, multimedia experiences, mechanics, satellite systems, fluid dynamics, geology, ultra high magnetic field physics, light cones, neutrinos, alge and roses, teaching and learning, time warping, navigation, flight, imaging, mapping, electronics, assembly, music, songs and tunes, jazz, acoustic folk music, anthropology, clan dynamics, oral history, video history, electronic histories, business development, human rights, civil rights, justice, fairness, strategy, international development, public participation in government, social design, sociology, cognition, quantum computation, quantum cryptography, sociology and cultural anthropology of science, dna, genetic engineering, genetic computational techniques, grid computing, distributed computing, real time systems, control algorithms, trust, application development, medicine, social policy, nutrition, play, fun, work, love, duty, Oceanography, body surfing, woodworking, carpentry, foster care, hospice care, independent living, child care, free speach, network management, construction, project management, public media, organizational development, perl, php, c language, linuz, operating systems, parsers, compilers, web services, xml, database technology, data mining, meta knowledge, audio processing, video over IP, multicasting, intrusion detection, sensor fusion, fractals, chaos control algorithms, instrumentation, sensors, uav, radio control, building automation, law, pottery, northern california, washington, oregon, mexico, new mexico, santa fe, tustin, taos, Mendicino, peta watt physics, lasers, chirped pulse technology, power system dynamics, poetry, snmp, policy routing, bgp, cisco ios, immune engineering, latin squares, latin music, classical music, blues, ethnic food, cooking, growing food, fish farming, plant propigation, improvisational theatre, professional theatre, movie direction, lighting, stage direction, crew dynamics, studio operations, conduct of operations, planning, environmental protection, endangered species, greenhouse warming, co2 sequestration, book publishing, publishing, streaming media, video on demand, broadcasting, program production, scheduling, document management, engineering management, engineering economics, color, video production, video post production, distance learning, public housing, seismic safety, rv, real estate, public safety, local government, analysis of information streams, correlation, correlators, optical switching, non-linear optical interactions, water-jet cutting, laser processing, laser free space secure communications, planitary discovery, gravity, time, cellular automata, scientists, laboratory technique, laboratory management, personnel law, legal theory, development, city planning, regional planning, water resources, biological resources, plant science, wave power, wind power, solar power, flywheel energy storage systems, family history, energy conservation, aerodynamics, flight systems, open source development, commons, cats, flowers, roses, biotechnology, photography,
highway engineering, dwdm, investment, venture capital, small business, telecommuting, telework, remote operation, thermoacoustics, basketry, chemistry, operations research, contracting, novels, white paper, seminar, native grasses, animal communications, physiology, neural biology, peptides, rock fabrication technology, hydraulics, power transmission systems, design, program management, information systems, birds, cable logging systems, intellectual property, freedom of information, information security, national security, communications theory, child development, educational policy, educational development, educational management, writing, journals, libraries, Japan, Europe, south America, pacific ocean, rocky mountains, Colorado, Ohio, Roanoke, Manhattan, Boston, north carolina, alaska, bc, textile printing, cranes, construction safety, trail building, trail maintenance, low-impact camping, tsunami, hydro vent life, orbital dynamics and design, planitary exploration, supernova theory, quark matter, finite element modeling, learning techniques.