Mitigating global atmospheric CO2 increase requires that use of coal must be reduced. Current economic forecasts point to a major increase in coal burning as China and India grow their economies. According to stories in the Financial Times"Sparks fly as China's hunger for coal grows," China now uses about 3.3 billion tons of Coal every year, and this is expected to rise by a billion tons a year by 2030, with much of the increase purchased offshore.
Just to get an idea of the scale of the problem, to avoid the increase of a billion tons per year in imported coal to China would require replacing the coal power with 135 Gigawatt power facilities. It boils down to building 7 big power stations a year just to stay even, say 14 per year to make a dent.
If we build nuclear stations, the cost might be 10B each, so this could be a problem costing around 1.35 trillion. Big but not beyond consideration when you factor in the cost of continuing on the current path.
The rate of environmentally sustainable power generation construction is no where near making a dent in the growth of coal unless there is a major boost to this mode of power generation supported by flows of capital on the order of that now going to Coal.
The capital markets see the construction of facilities that can process hundreds of millions of tons of coal a year and major capital committed to distribution system improvements.
If climate change is to be mitigated by reducing CO2 in the atmosphere, time is short, and the capital that is now going into creating a coal flow from the ground into the atmosphere must be redirected to creating the new energy infrastructure.
Some incremental progress is being made with the development of wind power, but this has not been part of an integrated transmission/system operation/investment/WindGeneration program. Creation of a large scale program that would include the above along with research and an educational outreach program is an opportunity for government to help us work in a common, effective manner to implement prudent measures that would bring our economy into balance with the environment, and reduce dramatically our reliance on foreign oil and coal supplies.
The process of creating a new viable energy supply source capable of running a country sustainably has a time scale of decades which is unfortunately the same time scale for us to control CO2 emissions if we are to mitigate the heating now underway to a level below that which produces catastrophic consequences to our civilization.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Monday, April 12, 2010
Wide Area Wind Power Systems
One of the issues that concerns energy planners who are considering renewable energy system investments in wind power is that wind is notoriously variable and energy investors want base load systems that reliably produce predictable amounts of power. So wind systems in the past have relied upon supplemental power generation systems, most commonly coal fired systems. The need for the supplemental systems to even out the wind power during times when the wind dies adds significant cost to wind systems and reduces the sustainable benefits.
Recently published research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences online by Willett Kempton, et. al, addressed this problem in a simple, clever way. The scientists consider systems that are very large and connected by smart transmission systems, systems larger than a typical weather system.
The researchers consider an example system that would produce tens of Gigawatts of power using off shore platform mounted wind systems conneted by a transmission system extending from Florida to Main. A review of meteorological data over a 5 year period shows that a synoptic system can have reliable base load characteristics with only a slowly varying capacity factor, mimizing the need for supplimentary base load generation capacity. The offshore wind power system spanning the entire Eastern seaboard could be a federal project and feasible from a political point of view since it would be out of the range of state regulators.
A key component is a 2500 mile power transmission system coonnecting a string of huge wind generation platforms. Such a system could replace a significant fraction of the coal plants now powering the cities along the Eastern margin of the country providing economical power and producing no new CO2. Of course building such a system would likely require a lot of fossil fuels and release a lot of CO2 before one watt of "sustainable power" could be produced.
Here is the paper that appeared at http://www.pnas.org/:
Electric power from offshore wind via synoptic-scale interconnection By Willett Kempton, Felipe M. Pimenta, Dana E. Veron, Brian A. Colle April 5, 2010 Proceedings of the National Acadamy of Sciences
They propose the creation of a new Independent System Operator for a network of power stations located off the Atlantic coast of the U.S. spanning the distance from Florida to Maine and connected by a transmission cable system capable of moving power long distances, connected to the shore at several strategic locations. Such a system could serve population centers that now rely mainly on coal fired generation capacity, helping to counter global warming.
While the technical and financial challenges would be enormous, their imagination and creative thinking are just what is needed to bring our country into the new age, to keep our economy humming, and to create jobs. Many of the basic challenges have been addressed elsewhere, such as the Dutch use of offshore platforms for wind generation, or the use of long underwater power transmission systems.
Since the system would be offshore, individual states wouldn’t have jurisdiction and the federal government could create the new ISO and sponsor such a project. It would take a massive investment of capital, likely a combination of private and public capital, but such a project is exactly the sort of massive undertaking that only the government can undertake, and that could make a real difference in our lives for generations.
There is still much research that would need to be done to address the myrid of technical, project management and policy questions.
For example:
Large scale wind energy farms can affect weather. Authors assert but do not support the assertion that the effects from a synoptic wind power system would be more manageable and less severe than the global warming that would occur in the alternate “do nothing” case.
Other impacts such as affects on pelagic bird populations may be significant. Research needs to be done to devise ways to minimize bird kill. We must find active ways to warn or protect birds..
The ability of enormous wind generators on offshore platforms to withstand the forces generated as large hurricanes march up the chain of wind generation stations is an engineering accomplishment as yet undemonstrated. European systems point the way, and oil platform technology would certainly work.
The scale of the project would be enormous, the benefits on the same scale, and lasting for many generations. The cost would be enormous, on the order of a hundred twenty billion dollars. By harnessing the wind off shore, our dependence on oil would decrease although our need for a Navy would increase.
The synoptic wind system idea may find application in other parts of the world. This research took advantage of the data bouy system operated by NOAA which has a long term database of meterological data for offshore wind. Without such a compehensive database, it may be hard to do the modeling that would justify such a project, although once the concept is validated, its application elsewhere would be able to utilize other data such as satellite data, etc.
It takes a long time to realize such an idea, so the sooner we start, the sooner we can build our own energy independence.
Bruce Bagnoli
April 12, 2010
Additional open issues:
One of the issues that concerns energy planners who are considering renewable energy system investments in wind power is that wind is notoriously variable and energy investors want base load systems that reliably produce predictable amounts of power. So wind systems in the past have relied upon supplemental power generation systems, most commonly coal fired systems. The need for the supplemental systems to even out the wind power during times when the wind dies adds significant cost to wind systems and reduces the sustainable benefits.
Recently published research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences online by Willett Kempton, et. al, addressed this problem in a simple, clever way. The scientists consider systems that are very large and connected by smart transmission systems, systems larger than a typical weather system.
The researchers consider an example system that would produce tens of Gigawatts of power using off shore platform mounted wind systems conneted by a transmission system extending from Florida to Main. A review of meteorological data over a 5 year period shows that a synoptic system can have reliable base load characteristics with only a slowly varying capacity factor, mimizing the need for supplimentary base load generation capacity. The offshore wind power system spanning the entire Eastern seaboard could be a federal project and feasible from a political point of view since it would be out of the range of state regulators.
A key component is a 2500 mile power transmission system coonnecting a string of huge wind generation platforms. Such a system could replace a significant fraction of the coal plants now powering the cities along the Eastern margin of the country providing economical power and producing no new CO2. Of course building such a system would likely require a lot of fossil fuels and release a lot of CO2 before one watt of "sustainable power" could be produced.
Here is the paper that appeared at http://www.pnas.org/:
Electric power from offshore wind via synoptic-scale interconnection By Willett Kempton, Felipe M. Pimenta, Dana E. Veron, Brian A. Colle April 5, 2010 Proceedings of the National Acadamy of Sciences
They propose the creation of a new Independent System Operator for a network of power stations located off the Atlantic coast of the U.S. spanning the distance from Florida to Maine and connected by a transmission cable system capable of moving power long distances, connected to the shore at several strategic locations. Such a system could serve population centers that now rely mainly on coal fired generation capacity, helping to counter global warming.
While the technical and financial challenges would be enormous, their imagination and creative thinking are just what is needed to bring our country into the new age, to keep our economy humming, and to create jobs. Many of the basic challenges have been addressed elsewhere, such as the Dutch use of offshore platforms for wind generation, or the use of long underwater power transmission systems.
Since the system would be offshore, individual states wouldn’t have jurisdiction and the federal government could create the new ISO and sponsor such a project. It would take a massive investment of capital, likely a combination of private and public capital, but such a project is exactly the sort of massive undertaking that only the government can undertake, and that could make a real difference in our lives for generations.
There is still much research that would need to be done to address the myrid of technical, project management and policy questions.
For example:
Large scale wind energy farms can affect weather. Authors assert but do not support the assertion that the effects from a synoptic wind power system would be more manageable and less severe than the global warming that would occur in the alternate “do nothing” case.
Other impacts such as affects on pelagic bird populations may be significant. Research needs to be done to devise ways to minimize bird kill. We must find active ways to warn or protect birds..
The ability of enormous wind generators on offshore platforms to withstand the forces generated as large hurricanes march up the chain of wind generation stations is an engineering accomplishment as yet undemonstrated. European systems point the way, and oil platform technology would certainly work.
The scale of the project would be enormous, the benefits on the same scale, and lasting for many generations. The cost would be enormous, on the order of a hundred twenty billion dollars. By harnessing the wind off shore, our dependence on oil would decrease although our need for a Navy would increase.
The synoptic wind system idea may find application in other parts of the world. This research took advantage of the data bouy system operated by NOAA which has a long term database of meterological data for offshore wind. Without such a compehensive database, it may be hard to do the modeling that would justify such a project, although once the concept is validated, its application elsewhere would be able to utilize other data such as satellite data, etc.
It takes a long time to realize such an idea, so the sooner we start, the sooner we can build our own energy independence.
Bruce Bagnoli
April 12, 2010
Additional open issues:
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